Post peak oil - what about 'Post Peak Economy'?

[Brahmacharya]

The verdict seems to be out on oil - we are going to run out, and most likely earlier than even a lot of us thought.

But with the economic implications of this coupled with the effect climate change will have on another of the pillars of our economy, the Insurance Industry, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about 'Post Peak Economy (PPE)'.

Think about it - our economic system is based on purely speculative foundations. You even touch one of those pillars and the whole building starts to crumble, and fast.

So I believe we are going to have too get used to a word with a much less emphasise on money. Money is believed by most to mean security today - what happens if it becomes virtually worthless in the next ten to fifteen years.

I believe the security of the future will be being a part of tightly knit community with diverse skills, and hence I've set-up a worldwide project called the Freeconomy Community (check it out at justfortheloveofit.org).

Let me know what you guys think of PPE and / or the community...and any other thoughts you have on the whole subject.

[QuestionAuthoriTees]

Usually that's how it is. People only change when catastrophe strikes.

[moguitar]

Average Peak Oil was actually May of 2005. Of 42 countries producing oil, only 7 are left that have not reached peak. They will peak between 2012 and 2018. Until that time, crude oil will go up in price with fluctuations from other market factors. After that the price will really skyrocket.
The costs of running heavy machinery(including mining operations and farm equipment) and the food distribution system(from trucks to ships) will skyrocket with it. Loss of crops by global warming will be much greater, and the combined effects with increased demand from even more people will raise prices of food. The growth only based economy will be collapsing into depression much worse than the 1930s. That will be the "Post Peak" economy.
It will be too late to implement most of Herman Daly's principles of steady state economics.
As other eco-failures happen like the loss of aquifers and world fisheries collapse, more soil depletion effects and pollution effects, then the economy will be localized to barter systems. Water in many areas will have great value, along with food and guns and ammo to defend from thefts and cannibal gang attacks. Of course, remaining petroleum products and biofuels will be very valuable and also used in barter. Money in any form will be more and more valueless. Sea trade will go back to sails and there will be an increase in pirating. By mid-century the economic collapse will be total with population collapses cascading around the world.
Global warming increasing will be beyond the adaptability of most life forms, making life more difficult for pockets of survivors exposed also to global mercury pollution. The most probable conclusion is extinction, and no economy of any kind. The last humans will die off when their underground bunkers run out of supplies and they must go to the surface of a world malevolent to survival.

[moguitar]

Originally Posted by moguitar

Average Peak Oil was actually May of 2005. Of 42 countries producing oil, only 7 are left that have not reached peak. They will peak between 2012 and 2018. Until that time, crude oil will go up in price with fluctuations from other market factors. After that the price will really skyrocket.
>>>>>>>The costs of running heavy machinery(including mining operations and farm equipment) and the food distribution system(from trucks to ships) will skyrocket with it. Loss of crops by global warming will be much greater, and the combined effects with increased demand from even more people will raise prices of food. The growth only based economy will be collapsing into depression much worse than the 1930s.<<<<>>>>> That will be the "Post Peak" economy.<<<<<
>>>>>>It will be too late to implement most of Herman Daly's principles of steady state economics.<<<<<<
>>>>As other eco-failures happen like the loss of aquifers and world fisheries collapse, more soil depletion effects and pollution effects, then the economy will be localized to barter systems. Water in many areas will have great value, along with food and guns and ammo to defend from thefts and cannibal gang attacks. Of course, remaining petroleum products and biofuels will be very valuable and also used in barter. Money in any form will be more and more valueless. Sea trade will go back to sails and there will be an increase in pirating. By mid-century the economic collapse will be total with population collapses cascading around the world.
Global warming increasing will be beyond the adaptability of most life forms, making life more difficult for pockets of survivors exposed also to global mercury pollution. The most probable conclusion is extinction, and no economy of any kind. The last humans will die off when their underground bunkers run out of supplies and they must go to the surface of a world malevolent to survival.

Nothing short of human caused Apocalypse from over-breeding for the conditions at hand and inability of the dumb masses to think ahead.
Overbreeding from increase in food from fossil fuels, and technology mixed with over-comapssion, to over-shoot way past sustainability, to die-off, and pollution effects lingering and causing mass extinctions. Greed, lust, all the deadly sins. Too many people leading to too many sales people to too many SPAMMERS. Too many people=lower wages=collapsing economies and migrations=wars=famines and mass death. Oil and coal---black dirty and evil.

[moguitar]

Originally Posted by moguitar

Nothing short of human caused Apocalypse from over-breeding for the conditions at hand and inability of the dumb masses to think ahead.
Overbreeding from increase in food from fossil fuels, and technology mixed with over-comapssion, to over-shoot way past sustainability, to die-off, and pollution effects lingering and causing mass extinctions. Greed, lust, all the deadly sins. Too many people leading to too many sales people to too many SPAMMERS. Too many people=lower wages=collapsing economies and migrations=wars=famines and mass death. Oil and coal---black dirty and evil.

Nutcase has come back posting drivel, and spammers still ruining the place.
Hasn't anyone read the steady-state economics with REAL costs of Herman Daly?:confus ed:

[moguitar]

Look up the lectures on facebook;
Professor Al Bartlett's
"Arithmetic, Population, and Energy"

[moguitar]

Originally Posted by moguitar

Hasn't anyone read the steady-state economics with REAL costs of Herman Daly?:confus ed:

Ammo, food, and water, along with electric vehicles will have great worth. Oil prices will be way high, and their effects of global warming will be causing crop failures, but people of ignorance and selfishness will still use it. Agriculture and food distribution will still use it with much higher food prices, as oil, soil, and water deplete. The post peak oil economy will be one of depression 4 times worse than the 1930s, from what I read in Herman Daly's books, and it will last over a century. There is no happy way out of the mess overpopulation and ignorance have gotten humanity into. The time to start preparing and reducing population and fossil fuel use was back in the early 1970s. Instead, the opposite happened.

[TheMorg]

This is so painfully true. Peak oil is somehow getting ignored by so many people. In circles where Ive raised the point I get met with blank expressions. I think people are unaware of just how many parts of their lives will be affected by oil shortage. I don't understand why there isn't mass hysteria. A friend of mine once commented, 'people don't burn until they are on fire'.
Im convinced its too late, that we need to start preparing ourselves and our children for a very different future. It may be worth learning some indigenous skills.

I guess you have all seen this link,
http://www.eia.doe.gov/conference/20...3/Sweetnam.pdf

Here are some points from the attached, excellent article, and relate to the graph at the URL above.

This graph was prepared for a DOE meeting in spring, 2009. Take a good look at what it says, assuming it to be correct:

1`. Conventional oil will be almost all gone in 20 years, and there is nothing known to replace it.

2.. Production of petroleum from existing conventional sources has been dropping at a rate slightly over 4% per year for at least a year and will continue to do so for the indefinite future.

3. The graph implies that we are past the peak of production and that there are750 billion barrels of conventional oil left (the areas under the “conventionals” portion of the graph, extrapolated to the right as an exponentional). Assuming that the remaining reserves were 900 billion or more at the halfway point, then we are at least 150 billion barrels, or 5 years, past the midpoint.

4. Total petroleum production from all presently known sources, conventional and unconventional, will remain “flat” at approximately 83 mbpd for the next two years and then will proceed to drop for the foreseeable future, at first slowly but by 4% per year after 2015.

5. Demand will begin to outstrip supply in 2012, and will already be 10 million barrels per day above supply in only five years. The United States Joint Forces Command concurs with these specific findings. http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storya...JOE_2010_o.pdf, at 31. 10 million bpd is equivalent to half the United States’ entire consumption. To make up the difference, the world would have to find another Saudi Arabia and get it into full production in five years, an impossibility.

5. The production from presently existing conventional sources will plummet from its present 81 mbpd to 30 mbpd by 2030, a 63% drop in a 20-year period.

Its nice to have something to look forward to.